tanks for ukraine

Tanks For Ukraine - Over the course of a few days this week, France, the US and Germany announced that they were donating powerful armored vehicles to Ukraine: French AMX-10RC reconnaissance vehicles, US M-2 infantry fighting vehicles and German free Marder aircraft.

Which of Ukraine's allies will be the first to promise Leopard 2 tanks? There are more candidates and it may only be a matter of time - or not

Tanks For Ukraine

With the trio of decisions, it was clear that something had changed on the political front of Russia's 11-month war against Ukraine. Kiev's NATO allies have pledged thousands of mostly used vehicles to the war effort, but so far most of those vehicles have been artillery pieces or lighter armored vehicles best suited for support roles.

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Now NATO is offering heavier and more lethal hardware – vehicles that could complement or complement Ukraine's pre-war inventory of aging ex-Soviet tanks and combat vehicles, upsetting the tactical balance in battles with Russia's own aging ex-Soviet vehicles.

However, none of Ukraine's allies have yet offered Western tanks. Yes, Poland, the Czech Republic and Macedonia donated several hundred of their surplus, Soviet T-72 tanks. And Slovenia has sent several dozen M-55S — essentially super-modernized Soviet T-55s from the 1960s — to Ukraine.

While the Ukrainian army already had the T-72 in its inventory and would certainly welcome new copies to inflict good losses on the battlefield and create new tank battalions, the army is in desperate need of more and better tanks. Surplus Leopard 2s, of which there are hundreds in Europe, are an obvious solution. "We need these tanks," Oleksii Makeiev, Ukraine's ambassador to Berlin, said in May.

It's not hard to see why Ukrainian tankers want the Leopard 2. They easily defeat Russian tanks like the T-72, T-80 and T-90.

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West Germany developed the Leopard 2 in the 1970s and introduced the first models in the 1980s. Thanks to a series of improvements, the 69-ton four-man tank with a 120 mm gun remained at the very top of armored warfare for five decades.

Due to its excellent ratio of speed, armor and firepower, it is widely considered at least on par with the American M-1, itself the gold standard for modern tanks.

And there are also Leopard 2s. The German company Rheinmetall produced 3,600 Leopard 2s. Hundreds of older models, including many of the most popular Leopard 2A4s, are in storage in Germany, Finland, Holland and Spain, among others.

They have different tank types and so could theoretically drop their Leopard 2s without completely sacrificing their heavy fighting capabilities. Poland, for example, uses both Leopard 2 and M-1 aircraft.

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There are more than enough useless Leopard 2s in Europe to rearm all active tank brigades of the Ukrainian army. More than enough Leopard 2s, so completely change the calculation on the battlefield

Weapons - decide which army will win the mechanized battle. With the Leopard 2, the Ukrainians would start the fight with technological superiority.

So what is retention? Germany controls export permits for all Leopard 2s, so Berlin ultimately decides whether a country can sell or donate its tanks. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far been unwilling to approve any transfer of Leopard 2 to Ukraine. Apparently Scholz thinks the tanks are "escalating".

There was a lot of pressure on Scholz to change his mind. "No rational argument why these weapons cannot be delivered, only abstract fears and excuses," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on Twitter. "What is Berlin afraid of and Kiev is not?"

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Politicians Anders Adlercreutz and Atte Harjanne founded an advocacy group in Finland whose sole mission is to embarrass European governments into offering Ukraine Leopards 2.

Shame on the German government to approve the bids. "A joint European effort could potentially make a decisive contribution to Ukraine's ability to maintain momentum in the war," Adlercreutz and Harjanne wrote.

It took a few months, but something is changing. The Americans now offer heavier vehicles, as do the French and yes, the Germans. In a tweet thanking French President Emmanuel Macron for a series of AMX-10RC reconnaissance vehicles, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi hinted at bigger weapons to come. "Intensification of work with partners in the same direction," he said exactly.

Polish officials are reportedly re-examining Ukraine's request for several Polish Leopard 2s, possibly based on a changing attitude in Berlin.

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If the proverbial dam breaks and Berlin prevents possible tank transfers, hundreds of Leopard 2 could start arriving in Ukraine as early as this spring. Just in time for warmer weather... and a possible new Ukrainian counter-offensive. It has become de rigueur in many circles to argue that Ukraine cannot hope to defeat the Russian military in the current war. If this assessment is correct, the obvious outcome of the conflict would be a negotiated settlement in which Russia would relinquish ownership of the currently occupied territories in exchange for "peace." After losing much of the eastern agricultural and industrial areas, along with most of the Black Sea coast, Ukraine would become a vassal state, economically unviable and dependent on foreign support for its existence.

Most likely, the appetite for international aid and support to Ukraine would eventually decline, which would also be helped by the waning interest in sanctions against Russia. Under these circumstances, the prospects for possible membership in the EU and NATO for what is left of Ukraine would disappear. Instead, Ukraine would inevitably fall into Russia's orbit. Nor would "peace" follow. As Putin has repeatedly stated, Russia has larger foreign policy ambitions that extend far beyond Ukraine.

It is certainly true that given the current situation, Ukraine probably cannot "win" if victory is defined as the return of all internationally recognized Ukrainian territory and the decisive defeat of Russia on the ground.

Western financial and security aid helped Ukraine inflict heavy casualties on the Russian military in the air, at sea and on land. However, conscious political decisions by the West to deny air power, self-propelled artillery, long-range precision fire and main battle tanks from Ukraine are having the desired effect. Without them, Ukraine cannot continue its offensive operations and expel the invaders.

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The West has almost certainly decided collectively not to "humiliate" Putin. When Latvia provides Ukraine with more military equipment than France, Italy and Germany, the true intentions of the major European powers will be fully revealed.

The logic of this approach collapses when we face the high probability of further Russian aggression on NATO territory. When that happens, there will be a lot of ranting about "missed opportunities" and "bad calculations." It is much better to face the threat now, when Russia is dealing with high casualties, depleted stocks of high-end ammunition, low morale, high losses among senior commanders, and poor leadership.

As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert brings you the Atlantic Council's best expertise and analysis on Ukraine twice a week.

An accurate assessment shows that Ukraine can win when it comes to basic capabilities. In terms of manpower, President Zelenskyi may eventually send up to a million trained soldiers into the field, despite heavy losses so far. That is much more than Russia can produce.

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Almost the entire Russian army was stationed in Ukraine, including troops withdrawn from the Far East and the exclave of Kaliningrad. Although often advertised as "850,000 strong", Russia's military in the field is actually considerably less than 300,000, with the remainder being internal security forces (the Russian National Guard), border police and other organizations unsuited to combat in Ukraine. . This force suffered painful losses that cannot be replaced by ill-trained conscripts and recalled reserves. Nor can Putin resort to full mobilization without great risk to his regime. Over time, Ukraine's lead in the labor force will only increase.

In terms of equipment, Ukraine is well equipped with small arms, vests and drones, as well as anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. It has substantial tank and artillery forces, good intelligence and a well-managed railway system that enables it to move forces and supplies along interior lines. However, most Ukrainian tanks lack thermal sights, GPS navigation, modern ammunition and modern armour, while most Ukrainian artillery is towed (and therefore vulnerable to Russian counterfire) and unprotected from small arms fire and shrapnel. Ukrainian tanks and artillery are also outnumbered by modern and deadly Russian systems.

Meanwhile, the US has a large number of M1A1 main battle tanks and M109A6 155 mm self-propelled howitzers in storage, which they have replaced with upgraded versions. These are redundant due to the current requirements and can be returned to operational condition relatively quickly and sent to Ukraine. Although not the latest technology, they are more than a match for the Russian systems. Until now, Ukrainian determination, courage and perseverance have enabled a strong resistance. But such strong skills are needed to win.

Nowhere is Ukraine's capability deficit greater than in aviation and long-range fires, where Russia clearly has the upper hand. Without a capable air force and a sufficient number of rocket artillery platforms, Ukraine cannot focus on Russian long-range systems that will raze entire cities in the east or

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